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Risk Management

How much to buy, when to sell, and how not to blow up.

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Frameworks for this subject

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Fixed-Fractional Position Sizing

Widely used; popularised by Van K. Tharp · 1998

Beginner

Risk the same small fraction of capital on every trade, so no single loss can do lasting damage.

What it asks you to do

  • Fix the percentage of capital you are willing to lose per trade before entering.
  • Derive position size from that amount and the distance to your stop — not from conviction.
  • Recalculate as capital changes, so size falls automatically during a losing run.

Where it struggles

Only works if the stop is honoured. It also assumes the stop can be filled at the intended price, which gaps and illiquid names routinely break.

Source: Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom

Kelly Criterion

John L. Kelly Jr. · 1956

Advanced

Calculates the bet size that maximises long-run growth given a known edge and payoff.

What it asks you to do

  • Takes the probability of winning and the win/loss payoff ratio as inputs.
  • Returns the fraction of capital that maximises compound growth.
  • Shows mathematically that both over-betting and under-betting reduce long-run outcomes.

Where it struggles

Assumes you know your edge precisely. In markets you never do, and overestimating it produces dangerously large positions — which is why practitioners use a fraction of the Kelly figure.

Source: A New Interpretation of Information Rate (Bell System Technical Journal)

Beginner

No prior knowledge needed.
  1. 3 min readBeginner

    How Much Should You Risk on a Single Trade?

    Decide the loss you can accept before you buy, not after. Here is the arithmetic that turns that decision into a position size.

    #position-sizing#basics#risk