Mastering the Market Cycle: Abhi Hum Kahan Khade Hain?

Woh sawaal jiska jawab kisi ke paas nahi

Koi aapse poochta hai ki is saal market kahan jaayegi.

Aap nau jawab pehle hi sun chuke hain. Ek kehta hai double ho jaayegi. Ek kehta hai aadhi. Dono confident lagte hain. Dono ke paas chart hain.

Howard Marks ne pachaas saal market mein bitaye. Unka jawab hai ki unhe nahi pata. Aur woh yeh bhi kehte hain ki kisi aur ko bhi nahi pata, na TV par baithe logon ko, na arbon ka paisa sambhalne walon ko.

Lagta hai jaise kitab pehle hi page par khatam ho gayi. Asal mein unki kitab wahin se shuru hoti hai, kyunki unke hisaab se hum galat sawaal pooch rahe hain.

Marks yeh nahi kehte ki baayan raasta mushkil hai. Woh kehte hain ki us raaste ke aakhir mein kuch hai hi nahi. Isliye woh doosri taraf chalte hain, aur baaki kitab wahan jo milta hai wahi hai.

Baaki kitab doosre sawaal ke baare mein hai. Baaki yeh article bhi.

Market aur economy ek cheez nahi hai

Marks ek ajeeb baat se shuru karte hain.

Economy dheere chalti hai. Har saal thodi badhti hai. Bure saal mein thodi ghatti hai. Woh kisi ko chaunkati nahi.

Market bilkul dheere nahi chalti. Woh udti hai aur girti hai. Aur yeh sab us economy ke aas-paas hota hai jo mushkil se hili.

Yeh farak kyun? Kyunki market economy nahi hai. Market ek kamra hai jo economy ke baare mein andaaza lagate logon se bhara hai. Aur log baat badha dete hain.

Kuch thoda behtar hota hai. Log maan lete hain ki bahut behtar hoga. Toh woh zyada keemat dete hain. Ab woh oonchi keemat agle aadmi ko yakeen dilati hai ki sach mein haalat sudhar rahe hain. Toh woh aur zyada deta hai.

Phir yahi sab ulta chalta hai.

Lehar beech ki line ko baar-baar paar karti hai. Wahan rukti kabhi nahi. Marks is baat par bahut zor dete hain.

Beech ki line dekhiye. Wahi “sahi keemat” hai. Ab dhyaan dijiye ki lehar wahan kitna kam samay bitati hai.

Yeh kitab ki sabse kaam ki tasveer hai. Yeh kuch bhi bhavishyavani nahi karti. Bas ek galat soch hata deti hai jo hum sab paale rehte hain, ki market aam taur par sahi rehti hai aur kabhi-kabhi paagal ho jaati hai. Marks kehte hain ulta hai. Market aam taur par sahi ke alawa kahin aur hoti hai.

Yeh pehle bhi hua hai. Kai baar

Unki baat maanna zaroori nahi. Yahi shakal baar-baar dikhti hai.

Yeh lehrein shakal hain, naap nahi. Inhe saaf dikhne ke liye ek hi oonchai par banaya gaya hai, jiska matlab yeh nahi ki ye sab ek hi size ke the. Inmein se kisi ek ke baare mein padhiye, sab achhe se likhe gaye hain.

Inmein se har ek public history hai, jis par sainkdon kitabein likhi gayi hain. Cheez poori tarah badal jaati hai. Tulip, jahaz ke share, ghar, internet companies. Kahani bilkul nahi badalti.

Kuch upar jaata hai. Log samjhaate hain ki is baar baat alag hai. Paisa udhaar lena aasan ho jaata hai. Aur log judte hain, kai udhaar lekar. Keemat us cheez ki asli kamai se koi rishta nahi rakhti. Phir bharosa palatta hai, udhaar rukta hai, aur girawat chadhai se kahin tez hoti hai.

India ke paas bhi is list mein apne naam hain. 1992 ka securities scam aur uske baad aayi girawat Indian financial history ki sabse zyada jaanchi gayi ghatnaon mein se hai. 2000 aur 2001 ki tez girawat bhi. Agar aap cycle ko un misaalon se samajhna chahte hain jo aapne bachpan se suni hain, toh ye dono achhe se likhe gaye hain.

“

History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Har baar tafseel alag hoti hai. Shakal nahi badalti, kyunki shakal logon se banti hai, aur log nahi badle.

India mein kahan dekhein

Marks kehte hain ki yeh padhai har us aadmi ke liye maujood hai jo dekhna chahe. Is market mein dekhne ka matlab kya hai, yeh raha, aur ismein se kisi par paisa nahi lagta.

In teenon mein se ek bhi chart nahi hai, aur yeh jaanbujh kar hai. Marks jin signals ki parwah karte hain woh sab public documents mein aam bhasha mein aate hain. Isi liye jiske paas na terminal hai na subscription, woh yahan peechhe nahi hai.

Shuruaat RBI se kijiye. Woh saal mein kai baar, vistaar se chhapta hai ki woh kya sochta hai. Aap use sirf ek cheez ke liye padh rahe hain: kya use chinta hai ki lending bahut tez badh rahi hai, ya woh aur lending ko badhava dena chahta hai? Yahi akela sawaal credit cycle ka bada hissa hai, aur woh bhi us sanstha ke shabdon mein jiske paas sabse achha nazara hai.

Phir dekhiye ki paisa aasani se kaun juta raha hai. Nayi listing, aur kise paisa mil raha hai. Jab woh business aaram se paisa juta rahe hon jinhe do saal pehle kuch bhi jutane mein mushkil hoti, to yeh wahi baat hai jo Marks lenders ki hod ke baare mein kehte hain, bas doosre darwaze se aati hui.

Phir naye aane walon ko giniye. India mein yeh chhapta hai ki kitne naye demat account khul rahe hain, aur mutual fund mein aane wala paisa har mahine darj hota hai. Aapko aankde nahi chahiye. Aapko disha chahiye, aur yeh ki aas-paas ke jin logon ne kabhi shares ki baat nahi ki thi unhone shuru ki ya nahi.

Ek Indian pech jaanne layak hai. Yahan aane wale paise ka ek bada aur badhta hissa kisi faisle se nahi, tay masik schedule se aata hai. Jo paisa bharose ke hone ya na hone se beparwah aata rehta hai woh us paise se alag vyavhaar karta hai jo bharose ki wajah se aata hai. Lambi giravat mein woh kaisa vyavhaar karega, yeh abhi koi nahi jaanta, kyunki is aakar par uski pariksha ab tak nahi hui hai.

Do ghatnayein ek ek shaam dene layak hain, aur dono saikdon jagah darj hain. 1992 ka securities scam aur uske baad aayi giravat. Aur 2018 mein non-banking lending mein aayi jakdan, jo isi lekh wala credit ka chakra poori raftaar par, aur hamari apni yaad mein.

Seedhi se upar, lift se neeche

Un sab ghatnaon mein ek aur cheez common hai, aur woh apni alag tasveer ki haqdaar hai.

Market dheere upar jaati hai aur tezi se neeche aati hai.

Ek price chart dono ko ek hi tarah ki line se banata hai, isliye yeh farak aasani se chhoot jaata hai. Farak maayne rakhta hai, kyunki yahi wajah hai ki top ke paas nikalne ka plan banane wale log aam taur par nikal nahi paate.

Chadhai aapko aaram se bas jaane ke liye saal deti hai. Woh aapko rukne ka inaam baar-baar deti hai, jab tak rukna hi sabse sahi faisla na lagne lage.

Girawat kuch nahi deti. Woh hafton ya mahinon mein aati hai. Jo log top ke paas bechne ka soch rahe the, unmein se zyadatar bech nahi paate.

Wajah kadwi hai. Jis pattern ne unhe rukna sikhaya, wahi pattern unhe rukne ki saza deta hai.

Woh cheez jo aap sach mein dekh sakte hain

Ab upar ki har baat mein ek dikkat aati hai.

Marks kehte hain cycle logon ki bhaavnaon se chalti hai. Theek hai. Lekin bhaavnaon ko naapa nahi ja sakta. Deewar par koi meter nahi laga hai jis par likha ho “lalach: 74%”.

Toh agar cycle bhaavnaon se chalti hai, aur bhaavnayein dikhti nahi, toh kya yeh poora idea bekaar hai?

Yahi kitab ka mod hai. Mujhe ise pakadne mein doosri baar padhna pada.

Bhaavnayein nishaan chhodti hain. Woh nishaan hai udhaar diya gaya paisa.

Aap bharosa nahi dekh sakte. Lekin aap yeh dekh sakte hain ki ek kamzor business ko is mahine loan mila ya nahi. Yeh raay nahi hai. Ya toh loan hua ya nahi hua.

Yeh jitna lagta hai usse zyada maayne rakhta hai, kyunki udhaar liya paisa hi bhaavna ko keemat mein badalta hai. Sirf excitement shaadi ki baatcheet hai. Excitement plus loan koi sach mein khareed raha hai. Aur kharidari hi market hilaati hai.

1. 1

   Kuch achhe saal guzarte hain. Lender ka bahut kam paisa doobta hai.
2. 2

   Kuch na doobne se lending surakshit lagne lagti hai, toh lender aapas mein grahakon ke liye ladte hain.
3. 3

   Yeh ladai aap tez, saste, aur pehle se kamzor logon ko loan de kar jeette hain.
4. 4

   Ab kamzor borrower ke paas paisa hai. Woh chalte rehte hain, toh unki dikkat chhupi rehti hai.
5. 5

   Haalat palatte hain. Sabse kamzor log fail hote hain, aur ek saath fail hote hain.
6. 6

   Lender lending rok dete hain, jisse baaki sabke neeche se paisa nikal jaata hai.

↺Ab cheezein sasti hain aur koi haath nahi lagata. Aur yahi woh haalat hai jahan se agla achha daur shuru hota hai.

Har kadam neeche wale ko paida karta hai. Isi liye Marks headline ke bajaye lender ko dekhte hain. Jab tak dikkat news mein aati hai, paanchwa kadam ho chuka hota hai.

India ne yeh loop 2018 mein chalte dekha, jab ek badi infrastructure lending company apna karz nahi chuka payi. Dikkat ek company tak nahi ruki. Poore non-banking finance sector mein lending sakht ho gayi, aur jo business saalon se aaram se udhaar le rahe the woh achanak nahi le paaye. Woh business raat bhar mein badal nahi gaye the. Paisa badal gaya tha.

Yahi yaad rakhne layak hai. Jab lending sookhti hai, jo dikkatein shuru se maujood thi woh ek saath dikhne lagti hain, aur lagta hai jaise kahin se achanak aa gayi. Aisa nahi hai. Udhaar ka paisa unhe dhak raha tha.

Kamre ko padhna

Toh Marks asal mein aapse karwana kya chahte hain?

Aas-paas imaandari se dekhiye, aur kuch simple sawaalon ka jawab dijiye. Keemat ke sawaal nahi. Logon ke sawaal.

Dhyaan dijiye ki suee hai hi nahi. Aapne jo bhi sentiment meter dekha hoga woh kahin na kahin ishara karta hai, jo chupke se yeh keh deta hai ki aaj ka reading ek pakki sankhya hai. Woh hai nahi. Aap kamre ko dekhte hain aur tay karte hain, aur aap galat ho sakte hain.

Har line aaj ke baare mein hai. Aap chhe ke chhe aaj shaam check kar sakte hain. Inmein se koi aapse agle saal ke baare mein kuch nahi poochta.

Paanchvi line par thoda rukiye. “Ab purane niyam nahi chalte” kabhi-kabhi sach hota hai. Kabhi-kabhi sach mein cheezein badal jaati hain. Lekin Marks ne dekha ki yeh vaakya sabse zyada extreme ke paas sunai deta hai. Wahan sunai deta hai kyunki jab purana tareeka keemat ko sahi nahi thehra paata, tab yahi dalil bachti hai. Woh yeh nahi keh rahe ki vaakya hamesha jhootha hai. Woh keh rahe hain ki dhyaan dijiye jis pal aapko iski zaroorat padne lage.

Aakhri line woh hai jise Indian padhne wala sabse jaldi pehchaanega. Jab market kuch samay se chadh rahi ho, naye investor bade paimane par aate hain. App khareedne ko chaar tap ka kaam bana dete hain. Aur aane walon mein se kai ne kabhi girti market dekhi hi nahi. Yeh unki burai nahi hai, sabhi kahin na kahin se shuru karte hain. Yeh bas jaankari hai, aur muft hai.

Apne jawab ka kya karein

Maan lijiye aapne dekha aur laga ki cheezein garam hain. Ab kya?

Saaf jawab lagta hai sab kuch bech do. Marks mana karte hain, aur unki wajah saaf hai. Sab bech dena khud ek bhavishyavani hai. Woh tabhi kaam karta hai jab aapko pata ho ki wapas kab aana hai, aur “kab” wahi cheez hai jiske baare mein woh poori kitab keh chuke hain ki koi nahi jaanta.

Unka jawab chhota aur kaafi boring hai.

Neeche ke number banaye hue gol number hain. Woh sirf idea ki shakal dikhane ke liye hain.

In the marketHeld back

Cheezein sasti lagti hain aur sab udaas hain

₹90,000 / ₹10,000

Aage jhukna, jab zyadatar log nahi jhukenge.

Cheezein normal lagti hain

₹70,000 / ₹30,000

Yahan aap zyadatar samay rehte hain.

Cheezein mehngi lagti hain aur sab excited hain

₹50,000 / ₹50,000

Peeche hatna, jab zyadatar log aage badh rahe hain.

Dekhiye kya gayab hai. Koi line zero par nahi hai aur koi line poore par nahi. Sabse savdhaan reading par bhi aadha paisa market mein hi rehta hai.

Yeh chhota daayra hi poora design hai, aur ise darpok samajhna aasan hai.

Yeh darpok nahi hai. Yeh is maan kar banaya gaya hai ki aapki reading aksar galat hogi. Jo tareeka sirf tab chalta ho jab aap kamre ko sahi padhein, woh tareeka nahi hai. Woh daanv hai.

Jo cheez aapko chukani padti hai

Marks apne hi idea ki kamzoriyon ke baare mein asaadharan roop se imaandaar hain. Unhe chhodna aapko woh cheez bechna hoga jo woh hain hi nahi.

Jaldi hona aur galat hona bilkul ek jaisa dikhta hai, aur yeh lambe samay tak chalta hai.

Jo market mehngi lagti hai woh saalon tak mehngi reh sakti hai. Un saalon mein aap sabse kam rakhte hain. Sabse kam kamaate hain. Aapke paas koi saboot nahi ki aap sahi hain. Aur aap un logon ko behtar karte dekhte hain jinhone poore idea ko nazarandaaz kiya. Zyadatar log yeh nahi jhel paate. Woh teesre saal ke aas-paas chhod dete hain.

Yeh imaandaar tasveer hai. Na chalaak timing, na top ke paas safai se nikalna. Zyadatar yeh bas khade rehna hai jab bheed aapke aas-paas se dono taraf bhaagti hai, utni der tak jitni theek lagti nahi.

Teen aur dikkatein naam lene layak hain.

Reading ek raay hai, number nahi. Do samajhdaar log ek hi market ko dekh kar ulta natija nikaal sakte hain. Saalon tak kisi ko galat sabit nahi kiya ja sakta. Isse yeh tareeka us nateeje ki sajaavat banana bahut aasan ho jaata hai jo aap pehle hi chah rahe the.

Yeh nahi batata ki kya khareedein. Kitab kitna ke baare mein hai, kaunsa ke baare mein nahi. Aap cycle theek padh kar bhi galat cheez chunkar paisa kho sakte hain.

Aur yeh aapse wahi karne ko kehti hai jo abhi-abhi samjhaya gaya ki aap karne ke liye bane hi nahi hain. Marks adhyaay bhar samjhaate hain ki log sabse galat samay par himmat kyun dikhaate hain. Phir aapse kehte hain ki aap apwaad baniye, usi dimaag se jise unhone abhi bayaan kiya. Woh ise sach mein suljhaate nahi, aur mujhe lagta hai unhe pata hai.

Ek kaam ki checklist

Marks aapko chaalein nahi, padhne ka ek tareeka dete hain. Isi liye unse sehmat hona aasan hai aur unhe istemaal karna mushkil. Yeh woh list hai jiska jawab unka tareeka asal mein maangta hai.

Jo aap is hafte dekh sakte hain

7

Ismein se kisi par paisa nahi lagta, aur kuch bhi yeh nahi batata ki kya khareedna hai. Yeh sab padhna aur likhna hai.

• RBI ka taaza monetary policy statement khojiye. Kya usmein chinta dikhti hai ki lending bahut tez badh rahi hai, ya woh aur lending maang raha hai?Yahi akela sawaal us zyadatar cheez ko samet leta hai jise Marks dekhte hain.
• Koi bhi business news site kholkar dekhiye ki is mahine kisne paisa jutaya. Kya kamzor companies ko bhi aasani se mil raha hai?Jab paisa aasan hota hai to kamzor business ko bhi mil jaata hai. Yahi sanket hai.
• Apne jaan pehchan ke do logon se poochhiye jo kabhi shares ki baat nahi karte. Kya woh ab aapse poochh rahe hain ki kya khareedein, ya chup ho gaye hain?Yeh muft hai, yeh aaj ka hai, aur ise koi data company nahi bechti.
• Aas-paas ke maahaul ke baare mein ek vaakya likhiye. Us par aaj ki tareekh daaliye. Kya aapne use wahan rakha jahan dobara mil jaaye?Chhah mahine baad aapko yaad nahi rahega. Woh parchi yaad rakhegi.
• Khabron mein ek aisi line khojiye jo kehti ho ki ab purane niyam nahi chalte. Kya woh aasani se mil gayi?Kabhi kabhi yeh sach hota hai. Yeh siron ke paas sabse zyada dikhti hai.
• Apni khud ki yojana dekhiye. Kya uska koi hissa zero par, ya poore par chala jaata hai?Poora bahar nikalna tabhi kaam karta hai jab aapko wapas aane ka samay pata ho.
• Woh ek cheez likh lijiye jo dikha de ki aapki padhai galat thi. Kya woh likhi gayi?Jis padhai ko koi cheez galat sabit na kar sake, woh sirf ek raay hai.

Yahan kuch bhi yeh nahi kehta ki kya khareedein ya bechein. Har line kuch dekhne ya likh lene ki baat hai.

Inmein se kisi ke liye paise wali service nahi chahiye. Chaar ke liye to bas ek pen aur das minute chahiye, aur mote taur par wahi baat woh baar baar kehte hain.

Jo sach mein rakhne layak hai

Kitab se faayda lene ke liye yeh sab apnana zaroori nahi. Teen cheezein khud apne dam par tikti hain.

Aas-paas ka taapmaan dekhna seekhiye. Jab woh log jinhone kabhi share ki baat nahi ki, poochne lagein ki kaunsa khareedein, toh woh jaankari hai. Jab wahi log chup ho jaayein, woh bhi jaankari hai. Dono mein se koi nahi batata ki aage kya hoga. Kisi ek ko action ka signal maan lena wahi bhavishyavani hogi jo Marks karne se mana karte hain.

Dekhte rahiye ki paisa kitni aasani se udhaar mil raha hai. Yeh mood ka woh hissa hai jo nishaan chhodta hai, aur ise aap aam business news se follow kar sakte hain.

Dial mein sochiye, switch mein nahi. Aap kisi bhi market ke baare mein jo bhi tay karein, dheere-dheere badalne ki aadat chalaang maarne ki aadat se behtar hai. Yeh cheez tab bhi bachi rehti hai jab aap kitab ki baaki sab baatein phenk dein.

Khud ko parakhiye

4 questions

Answer in your head first. Guessing and being wrong still helps you remember.

1. 01Marks kyun kehte hain ki market ki bhavishyavani karna mehnat ki barbadi hai?Show

   Kyunki market lakhon log hain jo ek doosre par pratikriya de rahe hain. Aise system ke neeche koi sthir niyam hota hi nahi, toh dhoondhne ke liye kuch pakka hai hi nahi. Woh yeh nahi keh rahe ki yeh mushkil hai. Woh keh rahe hain ki wahan milne layak kuch hai hi nahi.

2. 02Marks kehte hain cycle bhaavnaon se chalti hai. Toh woh bhaavnaon ke bajaye lending kyun dekhte hain?Show

   Kyunki bhaavna naapi nahi ja sakti, lekin loan dekha ja sakta hai. Ek kamzor business ne is mahine paisa uthaya ya nahi, yeh saaf baat hai. Lending usi mood ke saath chalti hai, toh woh ek na dikhne wali cheez ka dikhne wala nishaan de deti hai.

3. 03Market mehngi dikhne par bhi woh sab bechne se mana kyun karte hain?Show

   Kyunki cash mein jaana bhes badla hua andaaza hai. Woh tabhi kaam karta hai jab aapko pata ho ki wapas kab aana hai, aur wahi ek cheez hai jiske baare mein woh kehte hain koi nahi jaanta. Isliye woh kitna rakhte hain yeh badalte hain, aur hamesha kuch na kuch rakhte hain.

4. 04Unke tareeke ki sabse badi vyavharik keemat kya hai?Show

   Samay. Mehngi dikhne wali market saalon tak mehngi reh sakti hai, aur un saalon mein aap idea ko nazarandaaz karne walon se kam kamaate hain, bina kisi saboot ke ki aap sahi hain. Zyadatar log theek unhi saalon mein chhod dete hain.

Shukriya jinka haq banta hai

Upar ka har vichaar Howard Marks ka hai. Yeh Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side se aaya hai, jise Houghton Mifflin Harcourt ne 2018 mein chhapa. Unhone iska zyadatar hissa pehle apne investor memos mein taiyaar kiya, jo woh 1990 se likh rahe hain, aur The Most Important Thing (2011) mein.

Ek article woh nahi de sakta jo kitab ko achhi banata hai. Marks apni baat dheere-dheere banate hain, un cycles se guzarte hue jo unhone jiye aur un faislon se jo unhone sach mein liye. Woh kisi bhi chhote roop se kahin zyada mazedaar hain aur khud par kahin zyada shaq karte hain. Wahi shaq asli baat hai. Wahi saboot hai ki woh sach mein maante hain ki koi bhavishyavani nahi kar sakta.

Agar yahan kuch kaam ka laga, toh woh unse aaya. Kitab khareedne layak hai.