Stan Weinstein ka Stage Analysis: Aapka Share Kis Stage Mein Hai?

Ek share jo sasta dikhta hai

Koi aapko ek share ke baare mein batata hai jo bahut gir chuka hai. “Ab to bahut sasta hai,” wo kehta hai. “Aur kitna girega?”

Stan Weinstein is sawaal ka jawab nahi denge. Wo doosra sawaal poochhenge. Ye kis stage mein hai?

Unki book kehti hai ki har share baar baar wahi chaar stages se guzarta hai. Ek flat base. Ek badhat. Ek flat top. Ek girawat. Agar aap bata sakte hain ki chart kis stage mein hai, to aap jaante hain ki aage dekhna hai ya chhod dena hai.

Dheemi line wo insaan hai jo chal raha hai. Price patte par bandha kutta hai. Kutta idhar udhar bhaagta hai, par sair ki disha hi trend hai. Chadhai par kutta aage rehta hai. Girawat par peeche.

Jo share bahut gir chuka hai, wo aksar abhi bhi stage 4 mein hota hai. Neeche hona sasta hone jaisa nahi hai. Book aapse sabse pehle yahi maanne ko kehti hai.

Weekly chart par ek line

Weinstein lagbhag sab kuch ek line se karte hain. Wo weekly chart kholte hain, jahan har bar ek hafta hai, aur 30-week moving average lagate hain.

Do cheezein maayne rakhti hain. Price line ke upar hai ya neeche? Aur line khud upar ja rahi hai, flat hai, ya neeche ja rahi hai?

Weekly bars hi point hai. Daily chart har khabar par uchhalta hai. Weekly chart aapko sair dikhata hai, kutte ka har kadam nahi.

Stage 4. Ek achha hafta sair ki disha nahi badalta. Kutta ek pal ke liye aage bhaaga. Chalne wala abhi bhi dhalaan se neeche ja raha hai.

Chaar stage, seedhi bhasha mein

Har stage kaisa dikhta hai, aur method har ek mein kya karta hai.

Stage 1 aur stage 3 lagbhag ek jaise dikhte hain. Dono flat hisse hain jahan price line ke aar paar jaata hai. Fark sirf ye hai ki pehle kya hua. Lambi girawat ke baad flat hissa base hai. Lambi badhat ke baad flat hissa top hai.

Sunne mein aasaan hai. Par book asal mein ek chart padhne ke baare mein nahi hai. Wo kaafi peeche se shuru hoti hai.

Pehle jungle dekhiye

Weinstein apne kram ko “forest to the trees” kehte hain, yaani jungle se ped tak. Pehle poora market. Phir us company ka group, yaani sector. Tab jaakar company khud.

Sookhte jungle mein achha ped bhi aksar mushkil mein rehta hai. Isliye method pehle jungle dekhta hai, phir jhund, aur tab ped.

Unki wajah practical hai. Zyadatar share zyadatar waqt market ke peeche chalte hain. Girte market mein achha chart dhaar ke khilaaf tair raha hai. Badhte market mein, badhte sector ke andar, achhe chart ke peeche dhaar hai.

Isliye wo ek hi stage wala sawaal teen baar poochhte hain. Market kis stage mein hai? Sector kis stage mein hai? Share kis stage mein hai? Wo chahte hain ki teeno ka jawab ho “stage 2”.

Par poore market ka stage kaise padhein? Index ek line hai, aur ek line jhooth bol sakti hai.

Kya zyadatar share saath de rahe hain?

Yahan market breadth kaam aata hai. Ye poochhta hai ki move mein kitne share hissa le rahe hain, sirf ye nahi ki index kitna chala.

Bade index company ke size se weight kiye jaate hain. Kuch bahut badi companies index ko upar utha sakti hain jabki zyadatar share neeche khisakte hain. Index sehatmand dikhta hai. Uske neeche ka market nahi.

Kinaare se dono naav theek lagti hain. Upar wali do logon par tiki hai jo thak jaayenge. Breadth se pata chalta hai ki market kaunsi naav hai.

Zaroori nahi. Weinstein badhne wale shares minus girne wale shares ki chalti ginti dekhte the, jise advance-decline line kehte hain. Aaj breadth padhne wale ye bhi dekhte hain ki kitne share apne lambe average ke upar hain. Jab index badhta rahe par ye ginti girne lage, to kam log chappu chala rahe hain. Wo ise pehli chetavni maante the.

India mein ye kaisa dikhta hai

Method American charts par bana tha. NSE par chalane mein kya badalta hai, ye dekhiye.

Do aur India baatein maayne rakhti hain. Bade indices mein banking shares ka weight kaafi hai, isliye kamzor banking sector poori tasveer neeche kheench sakta hai. Aur kharcha asli hai: brokerage, securities transaction tax, stamp duty, aur short-term gains par zyada tax. Inme se kuch bhi chart par nahi dikhta.

Agar aap yahan method ko dabav mein dekhna chahte hain, to India ki 2008 ki girawat ya 2020 ke crash ke baare mein padhiye. Dono ek shaam ke layak hain, index ke saath breadth chart khol kar.

Wo breakout jiska wo intezaar karte hain

To market aur sector stage 2 jaise dikh rahe hain. Ab share mein Weinstein kya dekhna chahte hain?

Wo us pal ko chahte hain jab share stage 1 chhodta hai. Price mahinon se ek chhat ke neeche raha hai, ek aisa level jahan bechne wale baar baar aa jaate the. Phir ek hafte wo us chhat ke upar band hota hai. Yahi breakout hai.

Price kai baar ek hi level se takrata hai. Jab aakhir mein uske upar band hota hai, to wo chahte hain ki us hafte ka volume bar aam se kaafi lamba ho. Shaant volume wale breakout par unhe bharosa nahi.

Unka thumb rule hai ki breakout wale hafte volume haal ke average ka kam se kam double ho. Bhaari kharidari kehti hai ki asli kharidar aaye. Halki kharidari kehti hai ki ye bas bahav ho sakta hai jo wapas gir jaaye.

Wo ye bhi dekhte hain ki breakout ke upar kya hai. Kya share ek do saal pehle kaafi upar tha? To bahut logon ne wahan kharida tha. Wo apna paisa wapas milne ka intezaar kar rahe hain, aur har badhat mein bechenge.

Market se zyada mazboot

Share stage 2 mein hokar bhi market se peeche reh sakta hai. Weinstein aage chalne wale shares chahte hain. Wo ise relative strength se naapte hain.

Wo ye nahi poochhte ki share badha ya nahi. Achhe market mein sab badhta hai. Wo poochhte hain ki kya wo market se zyada badha, aur kya wo fark abhi bhi badh raha hai.

Girte market mein bhi ye idea kaam aata hai. Jo share market se kam girta hai, wo mazbooti dikha raha hai. Jab market mudta hai, to aksar wahi pehle chalte hain.

To ab kharidne ki poori tasveer aapke paas hai. Market stage 2 mein. Sector stage 2 mein. Share bhaari volume ke saath stage 1 se breakout kar raha hai, aur relative strength line badh rahi hai. Book ka zyadatar hissa yahan pahunchne ke baare mein hai. Nateeja zyadatar is baat par tika hai ki aage kya hota hai.

Kab bechein: ratchet

Kharidna wo hissa hai jo log enjoy karte hain. Weinstein us hisse par asli mehnat karte hain jisse log bachte hain. Bahar kab nikalein?

Unka jawab hai chart se lagaya gaya stop, kisi fixed percentage se nahi. Shuru mein wo base ke low ke theek neeche hota hai. Jaise share chadhta hai, wo beech beech mein peeche aata hai. Maan lijiye ek pullback tika raha aur price naye high par gaya. Tab wo stop ko us pullback low ke theek neeche le aate hain.

Har kadam thoda aur pakka karta hai. Stop kabhi neeche nahi aata. Jab price aakhir mein aakhri seedhi se neeche girta hai, trade khatam, kahani chahe jaisi bhi lage.

Wo kehta hai becho. Stop hi plan tha, aur plan tab bana jab aap shaant the. Us pal ki achhi khabar hi wo cheez hai jisse log apna stop neeche kar dete hain. Lambe samay wale holders ke liye Weinstein 30-week line bhi dekhte hain. Uske neeche close, aur line ka flat hona shuru ho, to stage 2 khatam ho sakta hai.

Top par achhi khabar, bottom par buri

Jab khabar achhi hai to share kyun girega? Weinstein ka jawab hai ki price kahani se pehle chalta hai.

Base tab banta hai jab har report abhi bhi udaas hoti hai, kyunki bechna lagbhag ho chuka hota hai. Top tab banta hai jab har report abhi bhi khush hoti hai, kyunki kharidna lagbhag ho chuka hota hai. Chart aksar kahani se pehle mudta hai.

Isiliye wo padhne walon ko headlines se zyada chart par bharosa karne ko kehte hain. Stage 3 ke top par khabar aksar shaandaar hoti hai. Jinhone pehle kharida tha, wo chupchaap un logon ko bech rahe hote hain jo wo khabar padh rahe hain.

Ulta bhi wahi logic hai. Stage 4 mein wo kabhi nahi kharidte, share chahe kitna bhi sasta lage. Himmat wale wahan short sell kar sakte hain, yaani girawat se kamana. Wo note karte hain ki breakdown ke liye breakout jaisa bhaari volume zaroori nahi. Girne mein chadhne se kam mehnat lagti hai.

Method kahan tootta hai

Har method ki ek kamzori hoti hai. Weinstein ki kamzori sideways market hai.

Agar dheemi line flat hai aur price use baar baar paar karta hai, to har paar karna signal jaisa lagta hai. Zyadatar nahi hote. Har ek ek chhota loss aur thodi brokerage le jaata hai.

Stage 1 aapki soch se kaafi lamba chal sakta hai. Breakout fail hokar wapas base mein gir jaate hain. Low ke neeche ka stop hit hota hai, aur phir share aapke bina ud jaata hai. Iska matlab ye nahi ki method toota hua hai. Iska matlab hai ki method baar baar chhote loss uthata hai, aur unki bharpai ke liye kuch bade stage 2 runs chahiye.

Stage ka label bhi ek andaaza hai. Do log ek hi chart dekhkar asehmat ho sakte hain ki ye late stage 2 hai ya early stage 3. Charts ko stages mein baantne wala software kaafi galti karta hai, khaas kar base par. Har screen ko insaan ki nazar chahiye.

Aur ye American markets par 1988 ki book hai. Weekly chart aur dheemi line achhe se safar karte hain. Circuit limits, kam trading aur short-term gains par tax Indian sachchaiyan hain jinse book ka kabhi saamna nahi hua.

Ek kaam ki checklist

Chart ko book ki tarah dekhna

7

Ye sab aap free broker app aur NSE website se kar sakte hain. Ye dekhne ka tareeka hai, kuch kharidne, rakhne ya bechne ki salah nahi.

• Nifty 500 ka chart kholiye, weekly par set kijiye, aur 30-week average lagaiye. Kya price line ke upar hai, aur kya line badh rahi hai?Method kisi ek share se pehle poora market check karta hai.
• NSE website par pichhle kuch hafton ki badhne aur girne wale shares ki roz ki ginti dekhiye. Kya zyadatar dino mein girne walon se zyada share badhe?Index badh sakta hai jabki zyadatar share girte hain. Ginti batati hai ki kya ho raha hai.
• Jis share mein aapki dilchaspi hai use usi weekly chart aur usi line ke saath kholiye. Kya wo base, chadhai, top ya girawat jaisa dikhta hai?Stage 4 wala share sasta nahi hai. Wo gir raha hai.
• Wo hafta dhoondhiye jab price ne purani chhat paar ki, aur uske neeche ka volume bar dekhiye. Kya wo bar pehle ke bars se saaf lamba hai?Shaant volume wala breakout wahi hai jis par book bharosa nahi karti.
• Wo price likhiye jahan method kahega ki idea galat hai, aakhri low ke theek neeche. Kya lower circuit aapko wahan bechne se rok sakta hai?Jo exit le hi na sakein, wo plan nahi ummeed hai.
• Dekhiye ki aapka broker app GTT order deta hai ya nahi. Kya aap wo exit price pehle se set kar sakte hain, taaki screen na dekhni pade?Shaant mann se lagaya stop girawat ke beech tay kiye stop se zyada aasaani se nibhta hai.
• Rupaye mein hisaab lagaiye ki wo exit price hit hone par kitna jaayega. Kya itna jaane par bhi aapke plans nahi badlenge?Loss ka size is baat se zyada maayne rakhta hai ki chart achha dikha tha ya nahi.

Is list mein kuch bhi nahi batata ki kya kharidein ya bechein. Har line kuch dekhne ya likh lene ki baat hai.

Check yourself

4 questions

Answer in your head first. Guessing and being wrong still helps you remember.

1. 01Stage 1 aur stage 3 mein ek hi fark kya hai?Show

   Pehle kya hua. Dono flat hisse hain jahan price flat line ke aar paar jaata hai. Lambi girawat ke baad ye base hai. Lambi badhat ke baad ye top hai.

2. 02Weinstein share se pehle market kyun dekhte hain?Show

   Kyunki zyadatar share zyadatar waqt market ke peeche chalte hain. Girte market mein achha chart dhaar se lad raha hai.

3. 03Index badh raha hai, par har hafte kam share apne lambe average ke upar hain. Breadth kya keh raha hai?Show

   Badhat ko kam share utha rahe hain. Move sankra ho raha hai, jise wo pehli chetavni maante the, akele is par kuch karne ka signal nahi.

4. 04Stop sirf upar kyun khiskta hai?Show

   Kyunki use neeche karna hi wo tareeka hai jisse chhota planned loss bada unplanned loss ban jaata hai. Har tike hue low ke neeche upar khiskana munafe ka hissa pakka karta hai.

Jiska shrey, use shrey

Stan Weinstein’s Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, Stan Weinstein ki likhi, 1988 mein Dow Jones-Irwin ne chhaapi. Weinstein kai saal tak ek market newsletter chalate rahe, The Professional Tape Reader.

Ye article method ki reedh ki haddi dikhata hai. Isme unke bahut se chart udaharan, market indicators ka poora set aur short selling ke vistaar wale niyam shaamil nahi hain. Book padhne ki wajah wahi hain, dheere dheere, bagal mein chart khol kar.