Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: Ooncha Bhaav Kyun?

Jo aapke account mein girta hi ja raha hai

Woh aapke paas pehle se hai. Aap use lagbhag roz dekhte hain. Har baar number thoda aur kharab hota hai, aur har baar aap thoda aur waqt de dete hain.

Mark Minervini use mahine pehle band kar chuke hote. Woh use shuru mein khareedte hi nahi.

Unki kitab ek aisi aadat par khadi hai jo ulti lagti hai. Woh wahi share khareedte hain jo pehle se chadh chuke hain, apne high ke paas, aur gire hue share ko haath hi nahi lagate.

Bhaav is baat ka record hai ki kaun aaya. Woh yeh nahi keh rahe ki baayein taraf wala business kharab hai. Woh keh rahe hain ki usse nikalne ki line lagi hai, us line mein kisi ko wajah pata hai, aur unhe wajah samay rehte pata nahi chalegi.

Unka tark saaf hai. Jo share girta ja raha hai usmein bechne wale baithe hain. Koi aapse zyada jaanne wala bahar nikal raha hai, aur aap dekh nahi sakte ki kaun aur kyun. Jo share chadhta ja raha hai usmein khareedaar hain, aur khareedna hi bhaav ko hilata hai.

Ek doosri wajah bhi hai, aur woh share se zyada aapke baare mein hai. Sasta hona ek kahani hai jo koi bhaav ke baare mein sunaata hai. Share chadh raha hai ya nahi, yeh aaj shaam jaancha ja sakne wala tathya hai. Woh sirf un cheezon par khade hote hain jinhe jaancha ja sake.

Yahi poora ulatfer hai. Kitab ki baaki har baat isi se nikalti hai.

Char kamre jinmein ek share reh sakta hai

Sabse pehle Minervini har share ko chaar mein se ek haalat mein rakhte hain. Yeh naksha unki kitab se purana hai. Stan Weinstein ne ise 1980 ke dashak mein mashhoor kiya tha.

Koi share bhula hua hai, aajoo bajoo hilta hai, koi charcha nahi karta. Ya woh chadh raha hai. Ya chadhna ruk gaya hai aur ooper ke paas haath badal raha hai. Ya woh gir raha hai.

Ise ek lambi lehar ki jagah kamron ki tarah banaya gaya hai, kyunki share kisi timetable se ek stage se doosre mein nahi sarakta. Woh ek kamre mein baitha rehta hai, kabhi saalon tak. Woh us kamre ko chhodte hain jahan sasta maal milta hai aur us kamre ko bhi jahan sabse zyada rounak hoti hai.

Unhe sirf chadhne wali haalat mein dilchaspi hai. Baaki sab woh chhod dete hain.

Likha hua yeh saaf lagta hai. Zyadatar log aisa karte nahi. Bahut saari khareed bhule hue aur girte hue share mein hoti hai, kyunki wahin share sasta dikhta hai.

India mein hazaron listed companies hain. Kisi bhi din unmein se zyadatar bhule hue ya girte hue kamre mein baithi hoti hain. Aapka broker app khushi se us din sabse zyada girne walon ki list home screen par dikha dega. Minervini kahenge ki woh padhne ke liye galat list hai.

Pehla filter jo woh lagate hain

Us naksha ko woh kuch sharton mein badal dete hain, jinhe share ko poora karna hota hai, tab jaakar woh peechhe ka business dekhte hain. Ye sab bhaav ke baare mein hain. Inmein se kisi ke liye raay ki zaroorat nahi.

Jaali na chalaak hai aur na nishpaksh hone ki koshish kar rahi hai. Woh sirf itni chhoti list chhodna chahti hai ki unhe kabhi khud ko manana na pade.

Daayein column ko dobara padhiye. Har line ek khaas tareeke se dhokha khane ko rokne ke liye hai, aur aakhri sabse zyada matter karti hai. Jo share achhe din par chadhta hai aur kharab din par girta hai, woh aapko bazaar ke baare mein bata raha hai, apne baare mein nahi.

Yeh kami nahi hai. Filter nishpaksh ya poora hone ki koshish nahi kar raha. Woh ek chhoti list banane ki koshish kar raha hai, aur uske liye achhe share chhootne ko taiyaar hai. Minervini sau mauke chhodna pasand karenge, bajaye is ke ki ek ke baare mein khud se behes karein.

Bhaav ka filter sirf pehla darwaza hai. Jo share usse nikal aaya use business ki taraf bhi apni jagah banani hoti hai. Unhe aisa munafa aur bikri chahiye jo pehle se tez raftaar se badh rahi ho, sirf badh rahi ho itna kaafi nahi. Unhe badlav ki wajah chahiye, aksar koi product ya bazaar jo sach mein badal gaya ho.

Kram, shart se zyada matter karta hai. Woh kabhi achhe business se shuru karke bhaav ke maanne ka intezaar nahi karte. Woh us bhaav se shuru karte hain jo pehle se theek chal raha hai, phir poochhte hain ki uske neeche kuch asli hai ya nahi.

Is par thoda rukna chahiye, kyunki iski kimat asli hai. Jo method bazaar ka bada hissa bahar kar deta hai, woh aapko achhi cheezon se bhi bahar rakhega. Aap use hota hua dekhenge, ek se zyada baar.

Chaal se pehle ka sannaata

Ab woh hissa jiske liye kitab sabse zyada jaani jaati hai.

Jo share chadh chuka hai woh seedha aage nahi badhta. Woh rukta hai. Minervini ka dawa hai ki kaam ke rukne ki ek shakal hoti hai, aur woh shakal dekhi ja sakti hai.

Kaam ke rukne mein har giravat pichhli se chhoti hoti hai. Trading shaant ho jaati hai. Din ka daayra sikudta jaata hai, phir aur sikudta hai, jab tak usmein bahut kam halchal bachti hai.

Neeche ke nishaan batate hain ki kitna haath badal raha hai. Jhoolon ke saath woh bhi chhote hote jaate hain. Unke liye yahi jodi poora sanket hai: patla daayra aur bhaari trading matlab behes chal rahi hai, patla daayra aur bahut halki trading matlab behes khatam ho chuki hai.

Unke hisaab se andar kya ho raha hai: har giravat ek aur group ko bahar nikaal deti hai jo ghabra raha tha. Kaafi giravaton ke baad us bhaav par bechne wala lagbhag koi nahi bachta. Tabhi thodi si khareed bhi share ko hila sakti hai, kyunki raaste mein kuch khada hi nahi hai.

Woh supply ke sookhne ki baat kar rahe hain. Yeh ek bhautik vichar hai, aur isi se samajh aata hai ki woh shakal jitna hi sannaate ko kyun dekhte hain.

Har rukna aisa nahi hota. Bahut se share mahinon tak aajoo bajoo chalte rehte hain aur jhoole utne hi bade bane rehte hain. Unmein unki koi dilchaspi nahi. Yahi fark poori wajah hai ki woh calendar ki jagah shakal dekhte hain.

India mein iska naqli roop bhi milega. Jis chhoti company mein trading patli hai woh hafton tak khoobsurat patli dikh sakti hai, sirf is liye ki usmein koi trade hi nahi kar raha. Daayra isliye patla hai ki share so raha hai, is liye nahi ki bechne wale khatam ho gaye.

India mein yeh kaisa dikhta hai

Kitab American market ke andar se likhi gayi hai. Yahan chaar cheezein badal deti hain ki ise chalane mein kya lagta hai, aur inmein se koi bhi unke tark ki kami nahi hai.

Pehli hai gehrai. Yahan bahut badi sankhya mein companies listed hain, aur unmein se kai mein aam din par trading patli rehti hai. Koi share chart ki har shart poori kar sakta hai aur phir bhi usmein se badi quantity nikalna mushkil ho sakta hai. Price haan kehta hai aur order book na kehti hai, aur in dono mein se sirf ek us screen par hai jo aap dekh rahe hain.

Doosri yeh ki nikalne ka raasta maujood hi na ho.

Indian exchange tay karte hain ki ek share ek din mein kitna hil sakta hai. Jab share lower limit par band ho jaata hai to bechna mehnga nahi hota, woh available hi nahi hota: aapke sweekar kiye ja sakne wale kisi bhi bhaav par khareedaar nahi hai. Yojana sahi thi aur bazaar ne use nibhane nahi diya.

Teesri yeh ki share ke aas-paas ke niyam aapke paas rehte hue bhi badal sakte hain. Exchange samay samay par kuch shares ko additional surveillance mein rakhte hain, jisse margin aur settlement ka tareeka badal sakta hai. Jo yojana pichhle mahine chal sakti thi woh is mahine apne aap chal jaaye, zaroori nahi.

Chauthi hai kharcha. Baar baar trading ka matlab hai baar baar brokerage, securities transaction tax aur stamp duty dena, aur thode samay rakhe gaye gain par tax lambe samay wale se alag lagta hai. Inmein se kuch bhi kisi chart par nahi dikhta. Aur yeh sab usi jeb se jaata hai jise yeh method bachane ki koshish kar raha hai.

Ek baat aur, jo ek shaam padhne layak hai. Bazaar ki vyapak giravat mein woh share bhi girte hain jo sabse mazboot the. 2008 ke aas-paas ki giravat Indian nazar se bahut vistaar se darj hai, aur uske ek dashak baad non-banking lending mein aayi jakdan bhi. Dono dekhne layak hain, aur inmein se koi bhi kisi baat ki bhavishyavani nahi hai.

To unhe kitni baar sahi hona padta hai?

Yahan kitab chart ke baare mein hona band ho jaati hai.

Minervini ka jawab hai har nateeje ka size.

Saat ke saamne do, aur do jeet jaate hain. Is drawing par koi number nahi hai, kyunki baat ganit se zyada wazan ki hai. Ganit neeche hai, agar aap jaanchna chahein.

Woh apni baat behes ki jagah jod ghata se rakhte hain. Neeche ke aankde gadhe hue gol number hain aur sirf vichar ki shakal dikhane ke liye hain.

Baayan column sahi se zyada baar galat hai aur aage khatam hota hai. Daayan column zyadatar baar sahi hai aur peechhe khatam hota hai.

Yahi kitab ka mod hai, aur iska wazan samajhne mein mujhe do baar padhna pada. Isse pehle ka sab kuch, saara filter aur intezaar, isi table ki seva mein hai. Jo chal raha hai sirf wahi khareedne ka matlab yeh nahi ki aap zyada baar sahi honge. Matlab yeh hai ki galat hone par pata jaldi chal jaata hai, jab tak galti sasti hai.

Ek bada nuksan itna mehnga kyun padta hai

Ooper wala table naram hai. Asli nuksan aur asli munafa barabar nahi hote, aur wajah yeh hai.

Ek hi aadmi, ek hi seedhi, do alag gehraiyan. Dekhiye gehre gaddhe ko kitni zyada seediyan chahiye. Do guna neeche jaane se chadhai do guna nahi hoti, aur yahi woh hissa hai jo andar girne se pehle kisi ko mehsoos nahi hota.

Ek gadha hua ₹1,00,000 lijiye. Aadha kho dijiye aur ₹50,000 bachte hain. Wapas wahin pahunchne ke liye ab us ₹50,000 ko dugna hona padega. Girne ke liye ek kharab faisla kaafi tha. Wapas aane ke liye kai achhe faisle chahiye.

Account jitna neeche jaata hai, yeh ganit utna hi mushkil hota jaata hai, aur woh jaldi khilaf ho jaata hai. Jaldi liya gaya nuksan usi galti ka sasta roop hai.

Minervini ka nateeja sookha hai. Jo paisa aapke paas pehle se hai use bachana, share chunne mein kisi bhi sudhaar se zyada kimti hai.

Risk asal mein kahan tay hota hai

Zyadatar log pehle tay karte hain ki kya khareedna hai, phir khareedte hain, phir sochte hain ki galat hone par kya karein. Minervini kram ulta kar dete hain. Woh position lene se pehle nikalne ki jagah tay kar lete hain.

Nikalne ki jagah hi khareed ka size tay karti hai, aur yahi hissa log chhod dete hain. Agar samajhdaari wala exit door hai, to us share ko kam matra mein hi khareeda ja sakta hai. Agar exit paas hai, to utne hi nuksan mein zyada khareeda ja sakta hai.

Har column ek hi line se shuru hota hai aur ek hi rangi hui block par khatam. Sirf share ka dher badalta hai. Woh block wahi raqam hai jo aapne khone ke liye maani thi, aur drawing mein sirf wahi kabhi nahi hilti.

Aakhri line kabhi nahi badalti. Uske ooper wali line saara adjustment karti hai. Risk ko control karne ka unka yahi matlab hai, aur yeh ehsaas nahi, ek hisaab hai. Agar aap yahi ganit kisi kitab ke bina, apne aap mein padhna chahein, to ek trade mein kitna risk lein par ek alag lekh hai.

Yeh sab tab hai jab aap waqai apne chune hue bhaav par nikal sakein. Indian market mein yeh maanyata dikhne se zyada kaam karti hai, aur ooper wala hissa batata hai kyun.

Aasan hissa itna mushkil kyun hai

Ismein dimaag ki koi mushkil nahi hai. Phir bhi lagbhag koi karta nahi. Kitab is baare mein imaandaar hai ki rukavat aadmi hai, method nahi.

Jo bhaav aapne diya woh ek beet chuki dopahar ka tathya hai. Woh chupke se woh star ban jaata hai jo share aap par udhaar hai, aur hawa mein khinchi line par khada aadmi hilne ki zaroorat nahi samajhta.

Dekhiye yeh asal mein kaise chalta hai. Share us star se neeche chala jaata hai jahan yojana kehti thi bech do. Bechne se nuksan asli ho jaata, is liye faisla tab tak taal diya jaata hai jab tak woh aapke diye bhaav par wapas na aa jaaye. Woh aur girta hai, aur ab nuksan sweekar karne ke liye bahut bada hai. Kisi mod par aap khud se kehte hain ki aap ab usmein lambe samay ke nivesak hain, aur woh holding ban jaati hai jiska zikr aap karna band kar dete hain.

Is poore daur mein company ke baare mein kuch nahi badla. Sirf yeh badla ki aap kya maanne ko taiyaar the.

Yahi pratikriya jeetne walon par ulti chalti hai. Jo position achhi chal rahi hai woh aapko ghabra deti hai, is liye aap use jaldi band karke munafa surakshit kar lete hain. Chhoti jeet aur bade nuksan ek aaraam pasand dimaag ka seedha nateeja hain.

Unka ilaaj koi manovaigyanik chaalaki nahi hai. Faisla position lene se pehle maujood hona chahiye, aur likha hua hona chahiye. Jo niyam aap girti hui position ke beech banate hain woh niyam nahi hai. Woh pasand hai, aur pasand badalti rehti hai.

Iske khilaaf kya kaha ja sakta hai

Jo method sirf apne achhe dinon se bayan kiya jaaye woh vigyapan hai. Ye rahi imaandaar dikkatein.

Yeh ek practitioner ka vivaran hai, aur yeh asli kamzori hai. Minervini ek American trader hain jo ek public trading pratiyogita se charcha mein aaye. Ek aadmi ka record, chahe jitna achha ho, ek nateeja hai. Bahut se log aise hi niyam follow karte rahe hain. Unke baare mein aapne kabhi suna nahi. Isi liye jinke baare mein suna hai woh nirpaksh namuna nahi hain.

Dhundhli aakritiyan jaanbujh kar dhundhli banayi gayi hain. Unhone bhi aise hi niyam follow kiye, unhone kitab nahi likhi, aur unke baare mein kuch aap tak nahi pahuncha. Sirf box par khade aadmi par bana koi bhi faisla ek ke namune par bana hai.

Method ko chalne wala bazaar chahiye. Lambe samay tak aajoo bajoo chalte bazaar mein share patle daayre se nikalte hain aur seedha wapas gir jaate hain. Har baar ek chhota nuksan hota hai, aur lagatar chhote nuksan milkar ek bada nuksan ban jaate hain. Kitab un bazaaron ke andar se likhi gayi hai jo chal rahe the. Aap jis bazaar mein hain woh unmein se ek hai ya nahi, yeh apne aap mein cycle ka sawaal hai, aur Howard Marks wahi lekhak hain jo is sawaal ko gambhirta se lete hain.

Ise chalane mein paisa bhi lagta hai. India mein baar baar trading ka matlab brokerage hai, aur kam samay rakhe gaye gain par tax lambe samay wale se alag lagta hai. Ooper ke tark mein in dono ka zikr nahi hai, aur dono usi jeb se jaate hain.

Ek gehri aapatti bhi hai. Unke filter ki har shart us se naapi jaati hai jo ho chuka hai. Share is liye paas hota hai kyunki woh mazboot raha hai, jiska matlab hai ki saboot design se hi der se aata hai. Woh is baat ko sweekar karenge. Unka jawab yeh hai ki der se aaya aur jaancha ja sakne wala saboot, jaldi aaye aur kalpit saboot se behtar hai, aur yeh pasand hai, pramaan nahi.

Aur yeh dhyan maangta hai. Daayra kab sikudta hai yeh dekhna Sunday shaam ka kaam nahi hai. Poore samay ki naukri wala aadmi ya to ise kharab tareeke se karega ya bilkul nahi, aur kharab tareeke se karna na karne se bura hai.

Ek kaam ki checklist

Ooper ka sab kuch sochne ka ek tareeka hai. Yeh woh list hai jiska jawab woh tareeka asal mein maangta hai, isi kram mein, us par amal karne se pehle.

Jo aap aaj check kar sakte hain

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Yeh sab aapke phone par hai, muft, karib das minute mein. Ismein se kuch bhi yeh nahi batata ki kya khareedna hai.

• Chart kholiye aur use ek saal par lagaiye. Price us saal ke upar wale hisse mein hai ya neeche wale mein?Woh sirf un shares ko dekhte hain jo apne hi saal ke upar wale hisse mein hain.
• 200 din ki average line chalu kijiye, jo har app banata hai. Kya price uske upar hai, aur kya line khud bhi upar ki taraf ja rahi hai?Chadhti line ke upar hone ka matlab hai mahinon se mazboot, ek hafte se nahi.
• Uske bagal mein Nifty ka chart kholiye. Usi saal mein dono mein se kaun zyada chadha?Jo share sirf tab chadhta hai jab sab chadh rahe hon, woh market ke baare mein bata raha hai, apne baare mein nahi.
• Price ke neeche pichhle kuch hafton ki volume ki pattiyan dekhiye. Kya woh chhoti hoti ja rahi hain?Badi chadhai ke baad shaant ho jaana wahi thehraav hai jiska woh intezaar karte hain.
• Kagaz par ek price likhiye: woh price jis par aap maanenge ki aap galat the. Kya aapne waqai likh liya?Shaant dimaag se chuni sankhya kharab din jhel jaati hai. Giravat ke beech chuni nahi jhelti.
• Dekhiye ki aam din par kitne share haath badalte hain. Aapka order uska chhota hissa hoga ya zyadatar?Agar aapki apni bikri se price hil jaaye, to aap sach mein nikal nahi sakte.
• NSE ki website par ASM aur GSM lists dekhiye, ye exchange ki extra-watch lists hain. Kya woh share inmein se kisi mein hai?Un shares par extra niyam lagte hain, aur pichhle mahine ki yojana un par na chale.

Yahan kuch bhi yeh nahi kehta ki kya khareedein ya bechein. Har line kuch dekhne ya likh lene ki baat hai.

Inmein se chaar batate hain ki share shartein poori karta bhi hai ya nahi. Teen batate hain ki aap wapas nikal bhi paayenge ya nahi. Zyadatar log sirf pehle chaar karte hain, aur baad wale teen chhodne par hi paisa jaata hai.

Agar aur kuch nahi to itna

Maan lijiye aapne kitab padhi aur tay kiya ki ismein se kuch bhi aapke liye nahi hai. Yeh ek waajib nateeja hai. Phir bhi teen cheezein le jaane layak hain.

Tay kijiye ki kya hone par aap galat maane jaayenge, paisa lagane se pehle, baad mein nahi. Shaanti mein yeh faisla sasta hai aur paisa hilne ke baad lagbhag asambhav.

Nateeje ko uske size se naapiye, is se nahi ki aap kitni baar sahi the. Zyadatar baar sahi hona aaraamdeh hai aur usse kuch tay nahi hota.

Aur us aadat ko pehchaniye jo chalti hui cheez band kar deti hai aur na chalne wali ko pakde rehti hai. Bazaar ki sabse purani shikayat yahi hai, isi liye is par sabse teekhi baat ek sadi purani hai.

In teenon mein se kisi ke liye chart, screen ya trading account nahi chahiye. Ye aadatein hain ki faisla kaise liya jaata hai, aur inhe apnane mein kuch kharch nahi hota.

“

It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.

Check yourself

4 questions

Answer in your head first. Guessing and being wrong still helps you remember.

1. 01Minervini bahut gire hue share ko khareedne se kyun mana karte hain?Show

   Kyunki girta bhaav batata hai ki bechne walon ka zor abhi bhi hai, aur unke paas yeh jaanne ka koi zariya nahi ki un logon ko kya pata hai. Woh yeh nahi kehte ki share kharab hai. Woh kehte hain ki unhe pata nahi chal sakta, is liye woh tab tak rukte hain jab tak khareedaar saaf taur par haavi na ho jaayein.

2. 02Unka filter zyadatar din zyadatar share ko bahar kar deta hai. Yeh jaanbujh kar kyun hai?Show

   Filter bazaar ko nishpaksh tareeke se bayan karne ke liye bana hi nahi hai. Woh jaldi se ek chhoti list banane ke liye bana hai. Kai achhe share chhootna woh is kimat par sweekar karte hain ki unhe kisi sandehpurn share ke baare mein khud se behes na karni pade.

3. 03Chadhne ke baad share shaant hota hai, to woh asal mein kya dhoondh rahe hote hain?Show

   Supply ka khatam hona. Har chhoti giravat ghabraye hue ek aur group ko bahar nikaal deti hai, aur sikudta daayra bahut halki trading ke saath batata hai ki bechne wale kam bache hain. Uske baad thodi si khareed bhi bhaav hila sakti hai, kyunki raaste mein kuch nahi hai.

4. 04Woh kyun kehte hain ki nuksan ka size, sahi hone ki ginti se zyada matter karta hai?Show

   Kyunki ganit yahi kehta hai. Kuch bade munafe aur kai chhote nuksan milkar aage khatam hote hain, jabki kai chhote munafe aur kuch bade nuksan peechhe. Kitni baar sahi hue, yeh akela nateeja tay nahi karta.

Shreya jinki banti hai

Ooper ka har vichar Mark Minervini ka hai. Yeh unki kitab Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market se aaya hai, jo McGraw-Hill ne 2013 mein chhapi. Chaar stage wala naksha isse purana hai. Stan Weinstein ne use Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets mein 1988 mein rakha tha.

Ek chhota article woh nahi de sakta jo kitab ko kaam ka banata hai. Minervini apna tark isse kahin zyada vistaar se rakhte hain, khaas shartein likh kar, aur wahi vistaar asli kimat hai. Woh likhne mein apni chhavi se zyada saavdhan bhi hain. Woh baar baar kehte hain ki niyam us aadmi ke liye bekaar hain jo unhe kharab din par nahi nibhayega.

Jo hissa yahan chhoot gaya wahi hissa hai jiske liye aap kitab khareedenge. Agar yahan kuch kaam ka laga, to woh unse aaya.